Manipur Again: Why Has the Ethnic Conflict Remained Unresolved?

Some conflicts resist resolution not because the solution is unknown but because the structural conditions that produced the conflict have not changed.

Manipur is one of those conflicts. The violence that erupted in May 2023 between the Meitei and Kuki-Zo communities did not emerge from nowhere. It emerged from a decades-long accumulation of competing land claims, resource disputes, political representation grievances, insurgency legacies, and a border geography that makes containment genuinely difficult. Recent violence has again raised concerns about the durability of relative calm, per reporting in The Indian Express.

This article does not take sides in an ongoing conflict. It tries to explain every layer honestly, because that is what UPSC demands - and because a conflict this complex cannot be understood through a single narrative.

The Geography First: Why Valley and Hills Are Not Just Physical

Manipur covers approximately 22,327 square kilometres. The Imphal Valley - roughly 10 percent of the state's land area - is where approximately 57 percent of the population lives. The remaining 90 percent of the land area, the hill districts, is home to the remaining 43 percent of the population and is predominantly tribal.

This geographic asymmetry has direct constitutional and political consequences. The valley is dominated by the Meitei community, who are classified as Other Backward Classes rather than Scheduled Tribes. The hills are dominated by Naga and Kuki-Zo communities, who have Scheduled Tribe status.

The Inner Line Permit system - which restricts outsiders from settling in tribal hill areas - has historically protected the demographic character of the hills. It does not apply to the valley. The valley's land use, settlement patterns, and economic activity are governed by different rules than the hills.

The ST status controversy that directly preceded the 2023 violence was a demand by the Meitei community for Scheduled Tribe classification. The Manipur High Court directed the state government to forward this demand to the Union government in April 2023. The Kuki-Zo communities interpreted this as a potential threat to the ILP system, land protections, and political reservations that ST status provides them. Violence began within weeks of the HC order.

Historical Background: Why This Goes Deeper Than 2023

The Manipur conflict has roots that predate independence.

Manipur was a princely state that acceded to India in 1949 - a merger that many in the state, including sections of the Meitei community, regard as contested. The state has experienced multiple armed insurgencies, the most significant of which were Meitei-dominated groups such as the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), which have operated since the 1960s and 1970s respectively.

The Kuki-Zo communities have their own history with armed groups, including the Kuki National Army and others that emerged in the 1990s in the context of demands for a separate Kukiland administration. Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreements between the Union government, the Manipur state government, and several Kuki militant groups were in place from 2008 - agreements that the Manipur government suspended in March 2023, shortly before the violence erupted.

The Naga communities in Manipur's hill districts have a separate but overlapping set of concerns, connected to the broader Naga political process and the unresolved Framework Agreement between the Union government and the NSCN(IM).

The Conceptual Distinction UPSC Loves

This is one of the most important analytical frameworks for GS-III Internal Security, and Manipur is the perfect case study for it.

Insurgency

An insurgency is an organised, armed political movement that uses violence to achieve political objectives - typically secession, autonomy, or regime change. It has a command structure, a political programme, and ideological coherence. It targets state authority rather than primarily targeting civilians of another community. The PLA, UNLF, and NSCN variants are insurgencies by this definition.

Militancy

Militancy is a broader term for the use of violence to advance political or ideological goals. It can refer to insurgency but is also used for groups whose organisational structure is looser and whose political programme is less defined. Many armed groups in the Northeast sit in the militancy category rather than the full insurgency definition.

Ethnic Conflict / Communal Violence

Ethnic conflict involves violence between communities defined by shared identity markers - language, religion, custom, ancestry. It is distinguished from insurgency by the fact that the primary violence is community-against-community rather than non-state-actor-against-state. The 2023 Manipur violence fits this category. Neither side is primarily targeting the state. Both sides are targeting each other.

Terrorism

Terrorism is the use of violence against civilians to create terror for political ends. It can overlap with insurgency or militancy but is distinguished by its deliberate targeting of non-combatants as a primary strategy. Some acts in the Manipur conflict meet this definition; the overall situation does not.

Civil War

Civil war involves sustained armed conflict between organised groups within a state, typically at a scale and organisation level that challenges state authority over significant territory. Manipur does not meet the threshold for civil war, though the internal displacement, the breakdown of mixed settlements, and the effective ethnic separation of valley and hill areas represent a serious humanitarian crisis that shares some characteristics with pre-civil war situations.

UPSC insight: These categories are not mutually exclusive and the same conflict can exhibit multiple characteristics simultaneously. Manipur has insurgency legacies, current ethnic conflict, humanitarian displacement, and border security dimensions all operating at once. The examiner rewards answers that acknowledge this complexity.

The Border With Myanmar: Why This Cannot Be Contained Internally

Manipur shares approximately 398 kilometres of border with Myanmar. This border is porous, forested, and ethnically continuous - the Kuki-Zo and Naga communities on the Indian side have cultural and kinship ties with communities on the Myanmar side.

The 2021 military coup in Myanmar, and the subsequent civil conflict between the Myanmar military (Tatmadaw) and armed resistance groups, has had direct consequences for Manipur. Armed groups, weapons, and displaced persons have moved across the border. The Free Movement Regime - which previously allowed residents on both sides of the border to move freely within 16 kilometres - was suspended by India in 2023 partly in response to these dynamics.

Drug and arms trafficking through this border is documented. Manipur sits within what is sometimes called the Golden Triangle's extended shadow - the route through which synthetic drugs and precursor chemicals, as well as arms, move into the northeast. This trafficking infrastructure predates the 2023 conflict but interacts with it.

The Role of the State Government and the Centre

The Manipur situation raises direct questions about both state-level governance failures and Centre-state coordination. The Human Rights Watch, multiple civil society reports, and parliamentary debates have raised concerns about:

• Selective law enforcement: Allegations that security forces responded differently in different areas during the initial violence in May 2023.
• Delayed central intervention: Questions about the timing and scale of central security force deployment.
• Internet shutdowns: Manipur experienced one of India's longest documented internet shutdowns - running from May 2023 for several months. The Supreme Court noted concerns about the shutdown's impact on access to justice and humanitarian response. The Anuradha Bhasin standard on proportionality applies.
• Internal displacement: Tens of thousands of people were displaced from mixed-community areas. Rehabilitation and return remain contested.

Peace, Reconciliation, and What Resolution Would Actually Require

Resolution of the Manipur conflict would require addressing simultaneously: the ST status question, land and ILP protections, political representation in the state legislature, the SoO framework with Kuki-Zo groups, and the border management challenge.

None of these has a simple answer. Each involves competing constitutional claims, competing historical narratives, and competing political interests. The Centre's role has been primarily security-focused rather than political-process-focused, which addresses symptoms rather than causes.

Peace processes in comparable ethnic conflicts - the Bodo Accord of 2020, the earlier Mizo Accord of 1986 - required sustained political negotiation, constitutional arrangements, and economic development commitments. Manipur is waiting for a comparable political process to begin in earnest.

UPSC Mapping

Prelims MCQ Practice

1. The Inner Line Permit system in Manipur restricts: (a) Foreigners from visiting (b) Indian citizens from other states from settling in hill areas (c) Tribals from moving to valley areas (d) Army deployment in tribal areas | Answer: (b)

2. Which of the following is correctly matched? (a) PLA - Naga insurgency (b) UNLF - Meitei insurgency (c) NSCN-IM - Kuki insurgency (d) KNA - Meitei insurgency | Answer: (b)

3. Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreements in Manipur involved: (a) Only the Union government (b) Union government and state government with certain militant groups (c) Only state government (d) United Nations observers | Answer: (b)

4. The Free Movement Regime along the India-Myanmar border was suspended in: (a) 2020 (b) 2021 (c) 2023 (d) 2024 | Answer: (c)

5. Which Constitutional Schedule primarily governs tribal land protections in northeastern India? (a) Fifth Schedule (b) Sixth Schedule (c) Seventh Schedule (d) Ninth Schedule | Answer: (b)

Mains GS-III Question

Why do ethnic conflicts in the Northeast frequently acquire security, political, and socio-economic dimensions simultaneously? Illustrate with reference to Manipur.

Essay Topic

Ethnic Identity, Territory, and Constitutional Accommodation: Lessons from India's Northeast.

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